A Token of Appreciation
I’m not normally one for the slow roll, but when you’ve got the goods and want to milk something for all it’s worth it can be useful. A week ago I started tweeting obtuse hints. Some were more direct than others, but it’s time to reveal the truth.
That’s right: I’ve copied some of the biggest names in Magic. In the style of LSV’s or Conley’s token, and the fun of the Yo! MTG Taps! token pair, I’m sharing with you a way to play with the Stybs everywhere you go!
If you want to get your hands on one of these bad boys just make the time to meet me at Worlds, this Thursday through Sunday! Not going? No problem! I’ll be working out the best way to get a copy in your hands, and it will probably involve and address swap. The details will follow.
Until then, enjoy considering the implications of attacking with me! (And, please, no chump blocks.)
This wouldn’t have been possible without the efforts of the quite classy Inkwell Looter, so send any praise or scorn for art (and photographs) his way.
PS: You should also visit Gathering Magic today. It’s important for me too.
The Horrors of the Innistrad Update
It’s no secret that Innistrad is loaded with pauper cube goodness. The combination of readers like you clamoring for this update breakdown, diversity and relative power among many of the commons, and incredible Limited environment that allows so many different angles of attack to shine have all coalesced into the perfect storm.
Innistrad is freaking awesome.
This update was one of the largest updates yet (19 cards from the new set), and many of the changes were a challenging decision to grapple. My sincere thanks go to Usman Jamil and Alex Ullman for helping shape my overall goals, with additional props to Sam Stoddard and Eric Klug for feedback on the fly as decisions were made.
The usual documentation, and cheat sheet, are here:
If you’re ready, let’s rock some horror!
White:
Out: Judge Unworthy
In: Bonds of Faith
Judge Unworthy has been trickling out of other cubes for some time, and it’s time has come for mine. I already discussed Bonds of Faith at length so I’ll spare that discussion here, but I will say that I am not exciting to continue etching away at the last bits of instant speed removal in white. I love Totem-Guide Hartebeest, but White needs more variety than just anti-creature Auras.
Out: Assault Griffin
In: Thraben Sentry // Thraben Militia
When I first saw Thraben Sentry I knew I wanted to give it a try. Assault Griffin is fairly average evasion in a color filled with evasive bodies. I’m not sure how Thraben Sentry will work out, but I’m optimistic that it will create interesting decisions and enhance the value of cards like Goblin Legionnaire, Sakura-Tribe Elder, and Mogg Fanatic.
Out: Stonehorn Dignitary
In: Village Bell-Ringer
I had high hopes for Stonehorn Dignitary when I added it in the last update. While he’s certainly blanked many powerful combat steps, and made at least one Blastoderm slightly more manageable, four mana has just felt like too much far too often.
Village Bell-Ringer has been a pleasant treat to play with, allowing both the instant speed block and battlefield untap to multi-block blow out your opponent. The card also features a man ringing a bell, so there’s that.
Blue:
Out: Essence Scatter
In: Claustrophobia
Blue is the weakest color for creatures, followed closely by black and red. However, blue is also the weakest for direct removal, completely opposite of black and red. Essence Scatter is a fine piece of “removal” but it’s also extremely conditional. Claustrophobia handles the far-more-often case where something already made it to the battlefield.
Out: Cloud Spirit
In: Stitched Drake
This change breaks my heart. I really love Cloud Spirit and the two cousins it inspired. But a 3/4 with flying that can block anything is a deal when it costs just about the same as our venerable 3/1.
The point I’d like to slip in here is that Stitched Drake could also be considered to replace Wormfang Drake, as that comes with the not-so-inconsequential risk of being a two-for-one with a crafty opponent and instant speed removal. However, Wormfang is also incredibly powerful when it isn’t a blowout which is far more often the case. Both Wormfang and Stitched have conditional requirements on casting, but both absolutely destroy other creatures at the same casting cost.
What I’m trying to say is that Stitched Drake is the new Skywinder Drake: give me more variants!
Out: Impaler Shrike
In: Makeshift Mauler
Blue doesn’t usually get respectable bodies on the curve. A 4/5 ground-pounder is nothing to sneeze at, and will certainly find more use regaining control of a game than a fragile 3/1 with flying that makes you want to sacrifice it. It also feels nice to get some use out of a body you chump blocked with earlier.
However, I do enjoy it when Act of Treason and other steal effects get into the card drawing game. I am sad to see the unique effect of the Shrike disappear, but blue benefits greatly from the Mauler.
Black:
Out: Ruthless Cullblade
In: Vampire Interloper
This is a pretty straightforward upgrade: a conditional 4/2 is less sexy than a flying 2/1. It’s important to note that blue and white have plenty of flying creatures to block an interloping vampire; flying is far less effective than fear, intimidate, or shadow in black, and I anticipate that our Interloper will be blocked a little more often than may appear at first glance.
Out: Geth’s Verdict
In: Dead Weight
Geth’s Verdict was often dead weight in games. This change is as poetic as it’s pleasing.
“Edict” effects (a player must sacrifice a creature) play well when boards are clear, decks are relying on getting the next best guy in play first, and only winning with a bomb or two. The pauper cube doesn’t play out that way, and instead most boards end up with a few stray creatures that can afford to be pitched. It isn’t that targeted removal is always better, but that this cube environment marginalizes the “one big bomb” path to victory.
Out: Terror
In: Victim of Night
Terror kills just shy of 75% of creatures in the cube. Victim of Night kills about 95% of creatures. Do you need more information?
Red:
Out: Chandra’s Outrage
In: Traitorous Blood
Red has plenty of burn, with Chandra’s Outrage topping the charts in terms of efficiency (you basically get six damage for four mana on one card). Traitorous Blood is an Act of Treason variant, and it plays into red’s attack strategy in a different way than the Outrage. I’m not sure this change is the absolute best, but creatures with four or more toughness can breathe a sigh of relief (as creatures with four or more power get a little worst in general against red decks).
I can share that I already experienced a truly outrageous blowout to this card already.
Out: Dead // Gone
In: Brimstone Volley
As a casual gamer and purveyor of all formats funky, I really dig cards like Dead // Gone. Split card giving an effect that completely unexpected in a color? Sign. Me. Up.
However, that doesn’t make the entire card good. Brimstone Volley is a fair burn spell that gets wicked efficient under a very normal condition in pauper cubing: a creature died. For comparison, Char deals less damage and a self-inflicted wound for the same cost. I like the two-mana burn spells, even the slower Volcanic Hammer and Fire Ambush, and Dead //Gone will just never do the job that a fully charged Brimstone Volley would.
And I still think I’d like Brimstone Volley undercharged over Dead // Gone as well.
Out: Viashino Bladescout
In: Crossway Vampire
This, too, was another hard decision. I like tricky cards, such as Dead // Gone, because how valuable a genuine trick can be in a format of absolutes. Removal absolutely kills most creatures. Counter magic absolutely stops any spell. Bladescout promised nothing outright, but functioned in so many clever ways that I was always surprised by it.
But it also often failed to deliver. And beyond the first appearance in a match, the value of the trick significantly decreased. A trick is good only when it’s hidden, unknown, and unexpected. Crossway Vampire is an absolute: that creature can’t block this turn. But it’s an absolute effect on a fairly efficient body. I’m willing to take a shot.
Out: Keldon Vandals
In: Pitchburn Devils
I really tried to like Keldon Vandals. Red is a color that wants to curve our aggressively every game. Vandals stop that curving cold, and far too often found no relevant target for the attached Shatter.
Picthburn Devils are how a true “punisher” mechanic works: I get a 3/3 in a format filled with 2/2’s, and when it dies I dish out a free Lightning Bolt. And it’s splashable. And it’s fairly costed for stapling the two cards together. And it certainly doesn’t suck like a certain other Devil.
Green:
Out: Trained Armodon
In: Ambush Viper
While I like it when I realize that the correct pick in a pack is a vanilla 3/3 for three, no one will argue that Ambush Viper is totally freaking awesome.
Why not cut one of the other vanilla 3/3’s for three? Well, they’re foil and signed. So there’s that.
Out: Wildheart Invoker
In: Festerhide Boar
Wildheart Invoker always felt like a “win more” card. It breaks stalemates, yes, but green usually does that through sheer volume of threats. There are no shortage of good creatures, and no shortage of fatties. A good fatty was, generally, redundant.
Festerhide Boar brings an interesting question to the table: do you block a small fry or not? While a Hill Giant may not be terribly exciting, this is the green Gorehorn Minotaurs we’re talking about here. I see this guy breaking more stalemates in more interesting ways than the raging raptor rider ever could.
Out: Pouncing Jaguar
In: Prey Upon
Aggressive decks need one-drops, but Pouncing Jaguar never worked out the way you wanted. Echo destroys curving out. Prey Upon is a green removal spell, costs the same as the Jaguar, and helps correct the creature/non-creature imbalance in the color. Pure win.
Multicolored:
Out: Tidehollow Strix
In: Forbidden Alchemy
The little bird that could (kill a Blastoderm dead) just never found a home in blue-black decks. Plenty of removal, better creatures with flying, and more evasive critters were found at the same mana cost in both colors.
Forbidden Alchemy is a card currently seeing play in Standard since it’s an incredible piece of card quality: trading one card and three mana for the best of the next four is an amazing proposition in cube. With the black flashback, adding it to a deck with recursive effects (Hello Mnemonic Wall and Unearth!) is certainly a powerful proposition.
Out: Silkbind Faerie
In: Feeling of Dread
The tapping Faerie is a fair card, gives blue and white a reasonable tapper you’d actually want to put equipment onto, and could single-handedly stop two creatures at once (the one you tap, and the one you block). It’s a defensive card through and through.
The evolution of blue and white as a color pair in my cube took it away from control, as there are no Wrath of God effects at common in white or blue, and into a tempo-based aggressive decks. Tapping and bouncing dudes, evasion, and countering a few key spells allows blue-white to hammer just as hard as the traditionally aggressive black-red and red-green color pairs.
In a fortunate happenstance I was able to play the blue-white deck in a Winchester draft against Eric Klug, professional painter of card alters and skillful destroyer of Stybs in Magic. Feeling of Dread works exactly as I needed to completely dominate in a race that could have gone horribly wrong, removing his key blocker and attacker for two turns as a Blastoderm died staring at Guardian of the Guildpact.
His deck had answers for the Guardian, but I had positioned myself to win the race if he drew one. Feeling of Dread looks good so far!
Out: Shield of the Oversoul
In: Travel Preparations
The idea of an indestructible flying creature is a terrifying idea. There aren’t too many ways to kill it, right? Thanks to the plethora of Pacifism-type and exile-based removal, indestructible isn’t as badass as you might think. Shield never felt the bomb that Armadillo Cloak is, and there were only a handful of green-white creatures to go Superman with.
Travel Preparations is exactly the kind of green-white card the color pair needed. You want both colors to get the full effect, still get to win creature battles, and have a concrete way to upgrade utility guys, such as Sylvan Ranger, in something more formidable.
The Extras:
The following cards are also still in consideration depending upon if other changes are needed:
- Rebuke – I’d like to get a little more instant-speed removal in white.
- Daru Lancer – Big, morph, and first strike. It’s like bacon: delicious.
- Spare from Evil – Is a global falter good in the color with the most Humans?
- Skywatcher Adept – Aggressive blue with level up.
- Morgue Theft – Recursion is really nice; more would spread it around.
- Gerrard’s Irregulars – Slash Panther is very solid; the original should hold up well.
- Wall of Roots – I keep seeing it do great things in cubes with higher rarities.
- Moment’s Peace – Double Fog would be an utter blowout against so many decks.
- Blazing Torch – True colorless removal with relevant creature type interactions!
The End Result:
Innistrad is making waves in cubes all over. The set is absolutely awesome for Limited, and that downward power across rarities is bleeding over into cubes.
Thanks, Wizards, for making my job so much harder. I hope fellow cube owners feel the pain too.
Bonding with Innistrad
Innistrad, if you haven’t heard about it yet from under your rock on Mars, is the next Magic set slated for release. I’ll be down near DC and Charm City at this weekend’s Prerelease events, transforming some cards and carrying on like the overbearing excitable git that I am.
What’s stunning about Innistrad is how powerful, yet thoughtful, many of the new commons seem to be. Let’s look at just one of the new cards today: Bonds of Faith.
Bonds of Faith, at a glance, looks like a trap. It’s Pacifism for non-Humans, but a modest boost to Humans specifically. Obviously, this card is “strictly worse” than Pacifism, right?
Let’s get one thing clear: anytime anyone invokes the phrase “strictly better” or “strictly worse” you need to be very careful to examine what they’re saying. Pacifism and Bonds of Faith aren’t the same card, as defined by unique English names, but they also aren’t the same card, as defined by actual gameplay.
Bonds of Faith may or may not be a “good card” in Innistrad Limited. I don’t know yet, and we’re here to look at Pauper Cubes. For my Cube, the questions Bonds of Faith asks are:
- How often will it function as Pacifism?
- How does that compare to other removal spells?
- Is the Human buff valuable?
Fortunately for you, I have answers to these questions.
How often is Bonds of Faith a Pacifism?
Answering this question is relatively easy thanks to a much simpler question: how many Human creatures are there in the cube? The rest is elementary. (Note, however, that this required me to add the subtypes for every creature into the cube spreadsheet. This was an hour or so of Gatherer drudgery, and I recommend doing that to check the current Oracle rules text for cards as many subtypes have changed over the years.)
Total Creatures: 203
Humans: 30
Percentage of Humans: ~15%
This means that roughly 85% of creatures get hit with Pacifism. If you want to tweak the percentages slightly you can account for creatures you can’t target (those with shroud or hexproof, Guardian of the Guildpact, etc.), but the point is clear: Bonds of Faith is, generally, Pacifism. But what does it mean to be “generally” a removal spell?
How does Bonds of Faith compare to other removal spells?
Every removal spell doesn’t remove every creature. Understanding what spells kill more, or less, creatures is just data analysis like above, and I could pull all sorts of interesting data on different removal spells. In fact, I’m considering calculating a “lethality” percentage that gives a percentage rank of how much a given spell kills.
That fun ditty (starting development of the cube equivalent of sabermetrics) is for another time. What I want to show today is that Bonds of Faith is not a trap, and to do that let’s compare it to the archetypical removal spell: Terror.
There are many different takes on Terror, so what bears out here is applicable to several more spells than just the namesake. Let’s ask the same type of question of Terror that we did for Bonds of Faith: for how many is Terror a creature killer?
Total Creatures: 203
Black Creatures: 36
Nonblack Artifact Creatures: 18
Percentage of Black and/or Artifact Creatures: ~26.5%
This means that just under 75% of creatures in my cube die to Terror. This also means that, on average, Bonds of Faith will be better at removing a creature than Terror and friends.
You read the correctly. Numbers, given proper context and calculations, don’t lie.
Is Bond of Faith’s buff for Humans useful?
Yes. This is a removal spell, as shown above, that is a binary, conditional creature buff. How useful it is it something much more elusive, an examination best left for fanciful situations involving best- and worst-case scenarios.
Meanwhile, I’ll just be putting a tweaked Pacifism on your dude. Thanks!
The M12 Update
I seem to be saying this every set, but Magic 2012 is really sweet for pauper cubes. “The Pauper Cube” was originally a project called “The Pauper Multicolor Cube”. It played just like the train wreck you’re imagining.
Although I have better tools to use today (and could give a “multicolor cube” a second, better shot), this update marks another important milestone: I’ve trimmed five more multicolor cards from the cube.
Why trim five more cards? I want more consistency and less “gold gaffs” getting passed around. If cards aren’t getting picked or used then it’s time to rotate them, and the most underused cards for those requiring multiple colors.
The changes I’ve made are spicy, and I want to get right to it:
Here’s a cheat sheet of changes, with complete explanations below:
WHITE
Cut: Hyena Umbra
Add: Stave Off
Hyena Umbra was meant for two things:
- Save a creature from future removal at the “shields down moment” risk of exposing yourself to a two-for-one. (Being only one mana meant that it was easier to play around removal or bait it into a counterspell.)
- Help non-evasive utility creatures, like Civic Wayfinder, become more formidable.
In practice, Hyena Umbra served neither purpose: it was rarely played. While it would shine from time-to-time, the reality was that the Umbra just never made the difference.
Stave Off, as the newest member of the Shelter family, feels much better. Still helps fight removal, still helps close games and make better trades, but now hides in your hand instead of sitting on-board to be played around. While we lose out on the potential mana efficiency of being able to cast it just when the mana is open, the surprise value can be much more devastating. As a bonus nearly every deck running White can put something like this to use, something Apostle’s Blessing has proven well.
Cut: Blinding Mage
Add: Gideon’s Lawkeeper
A 1-drop tapper is so much sweeter than a 2-drop tapper. The loss of one toughness is fairly irrelevant given that 1-drop tappers are brutal in aggro mirrors: either you burn your removal to take out their “removal,” losing tempo, or continue to play dudes and swarm over the defense, losing tempo as your best attackers and blockers are nullified.
Have I mentioned how sweet 1-drop tappers are? (Gavin Verhey recently leveraged Stormscape Apprentice in Winchester Draft. Blue-White is getting very powerful!)
Cut: Shade of Trokair
Add: Kabuto Moth
The Shade was an attempt to have more white 1-drops, but felt more like a clunky, fragile wall. The suspend never worked out well, and as a 1/2 4-drop it left a lot to be desired.
Kabuto Moth is something that seems similarly clunky, but that I’ve heard works really well in practice. Being able to add +1/+2 to a creature feels really nice when there’s so much burn dealing three damage. It also blocks like a champ, upwards of being a 2/4, and does it up in the air. Seems like another solid value-utility creature for the clever player.
BLUE
Cut: Sky-Eel School
Add: Chasm Drake
In a fast in-and-out cycling, Sky-Eel is being set aside for another, very similar creature. While the “loot effect” of “Draw a card, then discard a card.” is strong, even as just a one-time trigger, Chasm Drake is easier to cast and lifts a creature along with it on the attack, breaking stalemates and making combat more fun.
From my experiences with it in Draft so far, he’s stellar as a late game rip to punch through but feels as efficient as you’d like. Continuous value, even with something as marginal as repeatable Jump, is underrated.
Cut: Augury Owl
Add: Skywinder Drake
The Owl is certainly a fine card, and shifting up to three dead cards away for a fresh draw feels great. But a 1/1 with flying just didn’t do anything. Blue needs ways to attack better as a core color, and the third functional “3/1 with flying but can’t block non-flying” is so good I wrote three articles mentioning it as such.
Obsessed? Nah. Impressed.
Cut: Choking Tethers
Add: Frost Breath
Choking Tethers was meant to be a tool that helped slow the game down and give a breather to more controlling decks. It ended up being an uncounterable, defensive, cantrip tap effect for a single creature. It was unexciting, relatively weak, and awkward to play.
Frost Breath is a mini Sleep, shutting down two creatures for two combat steps; as a defensive spell, it’s great. But as an offensive it works just the same, and that blocker-clearing feature is something I’m looking forward to unleashing as well. Evasion isn’t the only way Blue can break a game open.
Cut: Looter il-Kor
Add: Plated Seastrider
This is perhaps the most questionable change, and it’s one I’m going to keep a close eye on. The Looter isn’t a bad card. In fact, given any piece of equipment the odds are fair that it will put the game away. Unblockable damage as you loot is solid, and protected by a few counterspells is a sweet spot to ride.
But our favorite Looter doesn’t block either. In trying to push Blue as a core color to draft, I’m trying out Plated Seastrider. Giant Tortoise version 2.0 is just the kind of roadblock a Blue deck needs. At four toughness it makes it much more difficult to be burned out.
If Blue is missing the card filtering that severely we’ll bring the Looter back, or reintroduce Merfolk Looter. I have a much healthier appreciation for that card after more than two boxes of Magic 2012 Winchester Draft.
BLACK
Cut: Innocent Blood
Add: Fume Spitter
I gave Innocent Blood a try. It never served its purpose well. Ideally, you pull the pants down on an opponent hiding behind a Guardian of the Guildpact or Calcite Snapper. Instead, you’d most often draw this into a locked or heated board, and have to decide if your worst creature was worse than your opponent’s worst. Awkward.
Fume Spitter is a 1-drop that comes as a removal package. This will almost always be handy, and leaving a -1/-1 counter behind makes the “chump block, sacrifice” option very sweet. Early or late, this guy is great.
Cut: Rotting Legion
Add: Mortis Dogs
As a shambling body of size, Rotting Legion rates in fairly high for Black in common. Coming into play tapped is a tempo short, but a 4/5 for just five is fine. It’s unexciting but relevant, able to take down a Stamping Rhino and unlive to tell the tale.
Mortis Dogs is a heroic little descendant of Hollow Dogs, but does so much more. Turn Giant Growth into a burn spell! Make equipment absolutely frightening! Is it almost Lava Axe or an overpriced Shock? The risk-reward feature of our favorite new Hound makes it a compelling card to play with or against. Attacking with Mortis Dogs is always an adventure, and I can’t wait to see where it goes!
RED
Cut: Dragon Fodder
Add: Gorehorn Minotaurs
I wanted to like Dragon Fodder. Originally meant to feed the devour mechanic of Jund, instead we made two 1/1’s that either chump blocked or died being blocked. That’s a pretty good deal for just two mana in Red, and Mogg War Marshal is a hero for his ability to defend, deter attacks, and slip in for a little damage. Just two dudes isn’t the same.
Gorehorn Minotaurs is a Hill Giant that can outperform Rhox Brute for the cost. Dropping a 5/5 into play is a stellar move, thanks to bloodthirst 2, but having “just” a 3/3 still works. Unlike Dragon Fodder, I’ll always be happy to cast this regardless of the board state: a 3/3 for four is “fair” and sufficient.
Cut: Hulking Ogre
Add: Blood Ogre
A 3/3 for three is just fine, but a 3/3 with first strike for three is a bargain. Hulking Ogre compares poorly to Blood Ogre, and that’s all the comparison we need.
Seriously. Blood Ogre is a beast!
GREEN
Cut: Hungry Spriggan
Add: Thundering Tanadon
Hungry Spriggan isn’t a bad card. In fact, it’s arguably better than one of the later additions I’ll discuss below. But green seems to be pulling its weight, and then some. What I want to do is subtly shift green to include more spells (a difficult task given green’s obvious creature-focused strengths at common) and subtly downgrade a select few creatures to be strong, but not the strongest (a slightly-easier-but-still-tricky task).
Thundering Tanadon is just such a slightly downward-lateral creature. It can be destroyed with artifact removal, “stolen” in drafts by non-green decks, and often comes with a two or four life payment. It’s a great creature, but much more risk-reward than the Spriggan.
Cut: Werebear
Add: Arachnus Web
Werebear has been a bit of an underperformer. Not the best at mana ramping, and all-too-often you’re shy of threshold. In a word: awkward.
Arachnus Web is a Green Arrest. When almost every creature in the cube has less than four power, Arachnus Web is as good as it gets.
Cut: Withstand Death
Add: Reclaim
Withstand Death has withstood two updates already, though it should have come out much sooner. It’s uninteresting and hasn’t served the purpose of providing excitement in combat as I would have liked. The weakest of the green combat tricks included, it was time to go.
Reclaim, however, is very interesting. Green already has one recursion card (Evolution Charm), and Reclaim looks to be able to play much the same way. Unlike some recursion effects, this one can put anything back on top. Blue just got a powerful new card, whether it knows it yet or not.
MULTICOLOR
This section deserves a slight clarification upfront: multicolor is dying in my cube. It’s there, and it has some interesting things, but the section has been whittled away to a shadow of what it once was. At one time it was almost double the size of any individual color. Now, it’s slightly smaller.
Tuning the gold section of cubes is tough, but for an ardent supporter of multicolored cards it’s absolutely painful. Yet here we are. Making the right decision isn’t always sexy or appealing, and the on-going austerity measures for multicolor presence are absolutely correct.
Cut: Talon Trooper, Dimir Infiltrator, Kathari Bomber, Deadshot Minotaur, and Thrill of the Hunt
Add: Stonehorn Dignitary, Phantasmal Bear, Wring Flesh, Ruthless Invasion, and Trained Armodon
We are losing all of the following: a relatively weak creature with flying (Talon Trooper); a weak creature that never served as a tutor (Dimir Infiltrator); an awkward suicide critter (Kathari Bomber); a value-driven-but-often-cycled dud (Deadshot Minotaur); and a very weak pump spell (Thrill of the Hunt).
We are gaining the following: a unique and powerful effect for common (Stonehorn Dignitary); an aggressive-for-the-cost creature in a color that needs it (Phantasmal Bear); a combat-encouraging removal spell (Wring Flesh); a splashable blowout-maker for aggro (Ruthless Invasion); and another efficient body in the color full of them (Trained Armodon).
Stonehorn Dignitary is a unique effect on creatures at the common rarity. The four toughness ensures that he’ll be a solid backstop, and skipping a combat step as an “enters the battlefield” trigger ensure that bounce and Flicker-type shenanigans get stronger: Whitemane Lion, Kor Skyfisher, and Momentary Blink look even better.
Phantasmal Bear finally gives a solid 1-drop to Blue. While others exist, Blue’s first turn antics have primarily been of the Brainstorm variety. An early dude that can trade well is a welcome addition; getting in for a Shock or two of damage is even better.
Wring Flesh is a curious card. It’s not Disfigure, but it’s not something abysmal either. I suspect that Wring Flesh will become an under-the-radar removal spell, one that may not be picked over some aggressive bodies but can make a world of different for the right deck. Taking away three power is often all that’s needed to make a gang-block payout well. (Edit: I did it all for @nerdtothecore, Alex Ullman.)
Ruthless Invasion was a card I didn’t really use in Scars of Mirrodin Limited. There were too many artifacts far too often for it to actually bypass the opponent cleanly. More specifically, you every player basically played every Splicer from New Phyrexia that they could. You’re 1/1 can’t block? How fortuitous. In a more general pauper cube, however, this card is a slam dunk.
Trained Armodon is likely the most contentious point of this update. If I’m weakening Green slightly why am I adding another efficient body? I’m adding it because it’s a reasonable creature that can be replaced by Hungry Spriggan and others down the road. This guy is a safe pick that leaves room to go up. I wanted to make an update to Green without necessarily making it stronger, and this vanilla Elephant serves that purpose safely. The future is wide open.
And Then There Was None
What do you think? Is this update on track with your expectations? What did you, or would you, do differently? Most importantly: do you think I’m wrong? Share your thoughts and fire up the discussion!
Skywinder Drake
Tom LaPille is my hero. While I will certainly admit there’s substantial fanboy influence happening here, he actually created something amazing: he was the lead developer for Magic 2012.
That means he’s the man who signed off on including Skywinder Drake in set the final product.
Believe it.
(To be clear, it was the design team that put Cloud Spirit in, and the creative team that adapted it into it’s Drake form. My gratitude goes to those all of team members and the rest of the developers too, but my fanboy-ism still needs rationalizing.)
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a bigger fan of Cloud Spirit and Rishadan Airship than me, and our new Drake will be the first piece of redundancy to hit “three copies” in my cube.
Perhaps I’m warming up to blue again after all.
If It Flies, It Dies
Skywinder Drake, like it’s two brothers in crime, provides blue a much needed piece of aggression at common. I won’t rehash the “add blue aggro to your cube” argument, but when you’re dealing with just commons it moves beyond a modest suggestion.
Calcite Snapper and Giant Tortoise have their place, and they serve very valuable purposes too. The issue is that those kinds of creatures are just one half of the team. Blocking the ground while pounding in the sky is a classic Limited strategy, and it’s one that, I’m happy to share, is alive and well in my cube. More importantly, getting both the offense and defense online quickly makes this most effective.
I may or may not have once played a sequence of turns as follows:
- Island, Preordain
- Island, Giant Tortoise
- Mountain, Cloud Spirit
- Mountain, Searing Blaze, Miscalculation their 3- or 4-drop
- Island, sac tapped Island to kick Rushing River, Counterspell their relevant play
- Mountain, kicked Pouncing Kavu, opponent is at 5
Skywinder Drake is a simple but effective bump in the aggressive power of blue. I don’t believe the “3/3 with flying for five mana” guys are leaving anytime soon, but smacking in for six damage, forcing an opponent burn a kill spell to deal with that guy, before dropping the five mana dudes seems fine. In fact, that order of events seems much more appealing than the other way around.
While it may feel odd to have something that can’t block as an early drop in blue, it’s the attachment to “blue is control” mentality holding you back. Pauper doesn’t have Control Magic and other permanent “steal” effects. Pauper doesn’t have effective duplication of Wrath of God board-clearing effects. Under almost any circumstance, to win in pauper cubes you have to attack. Blue has to have ways to attack efficiently.
If it can be done in cube despite Control Magic and friends, it’s a breeze to bash in pauper.
Believe in the Drake (or Airship, or Spirit). It’ll get in there.
(“Poster” courtesy of Dan Tack.)
New Pauperia
Based on various and sundry Draft smashing and Sealed dueling I can safely say that New Phyrexia is totally badass for pauper. The number and diversity of interesting cards, as well as the strange-yet-refreshing Phyrexian mana mechanic, make things very difficult to deal with: there is a lot of potential for pauper cubes in the set.
I can’t take whole credit for the following changes: Seth Burn, Alex Ullman, and Usman Jamil all provided input or feedback for developing changes as well. Without community feedback and development perspectives from others, cubing would be both boring and bad.
I really couldn’t do it without them, and readers like you.
Aside from the requisite New Phyrexia changes for the cube, red specifically is receiving a bit of a face-lift. It already has great burn as that’s what red does best at common. However, to make red creatures more compelling was a goal I started into after tweaking blue. I already added several creatures with haste, giving red the power of surprise and cracking back for more damage than expected. I want red to have other tricks and sources of card advantage, primarily through smarter and trickier creatures.
You can download the full spreadsheet, with additional data elements, here.
You can also browse the complete list through DeckStats.net here.
After you’ve checked out the changes, feel free to comment and share your thoughts! I’m all ears for more input, suggestions, ideas, experiences, and thoughts. Without further adieu, on with the show!
White
Out: Glint Hawk Idol
In: Porcelain Legionnaire
I didn’t make it explicitly clear during my review of the Legionnaire so I’ll clarify here: you will always cast this on turn 2 if the opportunity is there, however the “worst case scenario” of paying full retail later in the game is perfectly acceptable. (And thanks to Alex Ullman for pointing this discrepancy out.)
Glint Hawk Idol was pretty awkward in a cube not saturated with artifacts, though dodging sorcery speed removal is often underrated.
Out: Opal Champion (Test Lab)
In: Apostle’s Blessing (Test Lab)
With an actual three power for three (or two) mana with first strike coming in I feel safe taking the Opal dork out. It was a fine addition but skilled players were able to play around it most of the time.
Testing in its place is the powerful, and easily splashed, Apostle’s Blessing. Pseudo-Shelter (Pro Tip: Blessing can’t target opponent’s creatures) out of almost nowhere promises to make combat a little more exciting. (This message directed to Seth Burn and Alex Ullman; I hope you guys agree.)
Blue
Out: Wind Zendikon
In: Spined Thopter
I really like Wind Zendikon. It functions as a very cheap creature with haste most of the time, and the fact that’s it’s a signed foil in my cube makes it twice as sexy. (I’m a sucker for that, what can I say?) But it’s an awkward color for it, and ties up a land.
Spined Thopter is a very similar card that can be used by hyper aggressive decks as well as a “two power for two mana with flying” for blue.
Out: Double Header
In: Spire Monitor
Double Header has been surprisingly powerful. However, Spire Monitor functions even better by just killing a creature (if you cast it to surprise block with it), instead of just bouncing it, and is easier to cast to boot.
If there were more bounce lands from Ravnica, Double Header would probably stay; it does actually say “target two-word permanent” which is an insane blowout against all of the bounce lands.
Out: Windrider Eel
In: Impaler Shrike
For a modest shift in blue mana requirement, we swap a weak/strong binary, conditional body into an effective hitter that will always force an opponent to block. And in dream scenarios, getting to Lightning Bolt an opponent’s face then Ancestral Recall, all for the discount price of four mana in blue, is a dandy.
(Bonus: Act of Treason just got the best target ever, as my experiences with Act of Aggression indicates.)
Out: Ophidian
In: Trespassing Souleater
Ophidian hasn’t done anything that I’ve wanted it to, and Scroll Thief is actually superior in almost every circumstance.
The blue Souleater can be a simple Gray Ogre if needed to trade, or a powerful closer given any equipment or enhancing enchantment. The single blue mana requirement is paltry later in the game, and paying two life when something like a Bonesplitter is equipped will almost always be worth it. The longer the game goes the more it reads as just an unblockable dude for decks.
Black
Out: Sinkhole
In: Blind Zealot
Sinkhole hasn’t done much since most of the bounce lands were removed. It’s also cumbersome (Read: nearly impossible) to cast reliably on turn 2.
Blind Zealot has the same double-black requirement and functions far better in a format without liberal use of artifacts. It will hit like a slower Hideous End with a much larger potential upside of total damage.
Out: Shade’s Form
In: Geth’s Verdict
While I like everything the Form does flavorfully (empowering with the Shade mechanic and saving your creature from death), it pulls towards the hyper-linear monoblack archetype I don’t want to support.
Geth’s Verdict is roughly a Diabolic Edict with a bonus, and swapping it in for the Form keeps the double black costs flat.
(Bonus: Special thanks to Blake Stearman, of SurrealMemoir.com, for helping with this particular piece of pimp!)
Out: Child of Night
In: Vault Skirge
Child of Night isn’t evasive and generally trades with a random dork. It’s alright, but not very exciting.
The Vault Skirge, however, is evasive and supports general aggro decks even more, especially since it can serve as a 1-drop given the chance. Like Porcelain Legionnaire, you won’t often have it on turn 1, but you’ll still gladly play him whenever he appears.
Out: Nim Replica
In: Pith Driller
Nim Replica is very weak, particularly since “damage on the stack” left the game. Pith Driller is a solid twist on Cultbrand Cinder, and will definitely support control archetypes in general; removal-on-a-stick is always enticing and powerful.
Red
Out: Ruinous Minotaur
In: Viashino Bladescout
I kinda like the Minotaur (Hey, sweet Minotaur!) but the fact is that he trades like a chump… and that’s it. If he’s hitting your opponent for five you’re probably winning way ahead anyway, regardless of land loss.
However, the Bladescout is something more. Whether it’s the “worst case scenario” of pseudo-haste by dropping it at the end of your opponent’s turn, or sneakily slipping it down as a combat trick/blocker (or even both), I believe the Bladescout will see a lot more play for the same mana cost.
Out: Stingscourger
In: Goblin Shortcutter
This is painful, as cards from Planar Chaos tend to hold soft spots in my heart, but Stingscourger just isn’t cutting the mustard. The only things red needs to bounce it can’t target anyway. And tying up six mana over two turns for a meager 2/2 hasn’t felt good either.
Shortcutter can’t target what ‘Scourger couldn’t bounce, but it does let red ram more damage through in most cases. In combination with other aggressive colors, keeping a hefty or awkward blocker out of the way can make combat math a potential nightmare for opponents.
Out: Viashino Fangtail
In: Pouncing Kavu
I’ve been looking at Skitter of Lizards since Worldwake was released because I wanted more red 1-drops, and unlike Raging Goblin the Lizards scale with being a top deck late in the game. In considering both multikicker and kicker to distill how the keywords function in the cube, I realized that I was overlooking some simple reads, like Pouncing Kavu.
For three and double red you get a 3/3 with first strike and haste, a bargain price and rivaled in similar stats by Plover Knights. This seems like a very obnoxious guy to deal with and being able to strike immediately is a powerful draw.
Fangtail is a fine pinger but most decks liked him as a Hill Giant rather than utility pinger. Plus, red has enough other burn and pingers already.
Out: Aftershock
In: Skirk Shaman
Aftershock hasn’t been an answer most decks have desired. In fact, I rarely see it played at all.
Skirk Shaman, however, is an evasive beater in a color that needs some creature support. White gets Amrou Seekers; red has this similar card that seems worthy of inclusion.
Out: Pyrite Spellbomb (Test Lab)
In: Slash Panther (Test Lab)
The Spellbomb has been glitch from the start, and has never performed for red as a color. Promoting Kuldotha Ringleader to a full-time gig in the cube leaves room to swap the Spellbomb out.
Slash Panther can be a colorless four (and two life) and a 4/2 with haste. I’ve heard some good things, and since my experience with seeing it so far has been a bit underwhelming this is an excellent card for the Test Lab.
Green
Out: Wirewood Guardian
In: Maul Splicer
There is so much land fixing in green that forestcycling isn’t really needed. Maul Splicer provides the same amount of power but in a diversified package with trample to boot. I feel this will be an excellent ramp target, less powerful than Ulamog’s Crusher but certainly more difficult to solve outright.
In keeping support to the subtle white-green reanimation strategy, blocking with then rebuying it with either Breath of Life or False Defeat is just unfair.
Artifact
Out: Scuttlemutt
In: Pristine Talisman
The word is out: Pristine Talisman is as good as I predicted. In a cube without the worry of defeat via infect, the Talisman will help incrementally grind out some time for control strategies and help stabilize in a racing situation. Oh, and it mana ramps too.
Scuttlemutt is a fine card but with so many “colorless” creatures coming in the body and color-fixing nature of our favorite Scarecrow is no longer needed.
Test Lab Update
White: It was handled above, with Apostle’s Blessing taking the slot from Opal Knight.
Blue: Capsize remains in as it needs more testing; Pristine Talisman should help this.
Black: Innocent Blood remains for further testing; three Edict effects seems fine to fight random Blastoderms.
Red: With the enhancements to red aggro and a theme, Kuldotha Ringleader will continue to be a finisher/supporter. Pyrite Spellbomb is being cut to test Slash Panther, as described above.
Green: Viridian Emissary feels right and closer looks will be made at green creatures to determine if something else can go.
Artifact: Flayer Husk is pretty sweet. Additional changes to artifacts will be reviewed shortly.
Porcelain Legionnaire
This may be the lowest hanging fruit to pick but one of the most talked about cube aggro cards, for all cube rarity restrictions, from the upcoming New Phyrexia set is this guy:
Porcelain Legionnaire is an obvious card at first glance. You get a 3/1 with first strike for either a fair cost of two colorless and a white, or an aggressive cost of two colorless and two life. First strike is great in Limited, and it comes bundled with an alternate cost feeds into most breakneck aggro decks.
But there’s some subtlety going on here that warrants a little closer look.
Temporal Manipulation
Let’s talk “Phyrexian mana” for a minute. If you haven’t seen it yet, the mechanics article explains it succinctly:
That strange symbol you see is a [white] Phyrexian mana symbol, and it has counterparts in the other four colors. A Phyrexian mana symbol can be paid with one mana of its color, just like a normal colored mana symbol. But it can also be paid with 2 life, letting you cast some spells on the cheap, cast other spells (like this one) for free, and cast spells of any of the five colors no matter what colors of mana you can generate.
Effectively, wherever a Phyrexian mana symbol appears the spell has an alternative cost of less colored mana for some multiple of two life. Alternative, non-mana costs have a long history of being abused or leveraged for significant advantage. Consider this spell with an alternative cost:
If you play Legacy even a little bit you’re sure to see Force of Will sooner rather than later. While the actual card advantage of the card is debatable under many different contexts, it’s ability to buy tempo (that is, stopping somebody from killing, disrupting, doing something otherwise unfair to you right now) is undeniable.
While Phyrexian mana is not equivalent to cashing an entire spell out for free like Force of Will (except, of course, for the nine where it does), casting a card using Phyrexian mana is to directly value the tempo gain from mana efficiency at the expense of your life total.
All of the Phyrexian mana spells can be leveraged to great effect, but particularly shine when the tempo gained is obviously superior to the life loss. Cards like Mutagenic Growth (one to be discussed another day) and Gut Shot have their use in taking opponents for a blowout ride. Tim Willoughby made this point clearly:
Gut Shot and Mutagenic Growth are not the sort of spells you want to be casting too early. These are precision strikes that are built to catch people unawares, especially as you can cast them at any time. Typically I can only see myself casting Gut Shot targeting a player if it kills them or one of their planeswalkers. Likewise, I never want to cast Mutagenic Growth unless it kills a creature, a planeswalker, or a player.
That means these spells are absolutely best when opponents aren’t able to anticipate the play at all. But creatures are a little different. Unlike Gut Shot and Mutagenic Growth, Porcelain Legionnaire will often be highly rewarding to play as early and often as possible. Instead of holding it back, waiting for the right window to play it, Legionnaire reads as a card that simply costs two colorless and two life to stop in.
And thanks to that alternate cost the Legionnaire can appear in any aggressive deck in a cube, which is why most cube builders are looking at it so much.
Caveat Emptor?
While the alternative cost is useful and certainly helps support aggressive strategies, there are two pieces of information that need to be factored in.
1) First strike is a powerful defensive ability.
A blue-white tempo deck finds the most utility in a creature that can stabilize the board and serve as a powerful weapon on the offense. Whether you’re ahead or behind, casting this for its “fair” cost is still very effective. Three power for three mana is a fine ratio at pauper and quite reasonable to bank on.
In short, the alternative cost is not a requirement in its effectiveness.
2) You’ll often not have this available to cast on turn 2.
If you missed some of the bonus analysis I provided at the end of the Trinket Mage review you should check that out to help frame and clarify where I’m getting my numbers below.
Let’s assume you’ve drafted Porcelain Legionnaire and you want to know how often you’ll have this available to cast (that is, be in hand) on turn 2, also assuming no discard disruption from your opponent, mulligans required, or hand-sculpting spells played by you, and also ignoring whether we’re drawing a sufficient number of lands.
That is, we’re assuming the best natural scenario under purely illustrative circumstances; factoring in conditional draws is a bit trickier and relatively unimportant as assuming additional conditions (hence, ‘conditional’ probability) lowers the odds anyway. In fact, most other scenarios period will obviously have lower odds, but I’ll get to some similarly illustrative Brainstorm and Preordain cases later to help clarify.
And, as a final note, I use the term ‘illustrative’ to indicate that the math is slightly fuzzy and is not meant to be taken with scientific precision. I’m making a point of general odds of things occurring, not iterating to demonstrate a theorem conclusively.
Back where we started, we have a 40 card deck with one copy of Porcelain Legionnaire, so:
- On the play (8 cards seen; 7 in opening hand plus turn 2 draw): 20%
- On the draw (9 cards seen; 7 in opening hand plus turns 1 and 2 draws): 22.5%
The vast majority of your games, Porcelain Legionnaire won’t be seen until sometime after your second turn. While I will almost always choose to cast this for two colorless on turn 2, the best natural odds of having it on exactly turn 2 is a pretty poor wager to take.
Taking this a step further, I believe that white-blue is exactly where this card belongs, both permitting an aggressive start and backstopping a strong defensive stand if needed. Thanks to playing blue, let’s see how much better the odds become with casting either Preordain or Brainstorm on turn 1.
Here’s how I’m handling Preordain and Brainstorm. Brainstorm straight up draws three cards and you put two back. The next turn, you draw one that you’ve already seen. So, your sample size only increases by two: the two cards deeper you see compared to simply drawing on your next turn alone. Preordain, however, let’s you see up to four more cards: two from scrying and if it’s there you can it to put back on top to then draw it (success). Otherwise, you put those two on the bottom then draw your third seen card. On the next turn, turn 2 you draw the fourth.
(So, yes, Preordain is a very, very good card and can be better than Brainstorm in specific circumstances, like this one. It’d be absolutely absurd as an instant.)
Brainstorm:
- On the play (10 cards seen): 25%
- On the draw (11 cards seen): 27.5%
Preordain:
- On the play (12 cards seen): 30%
- On the draw (13 cards seen): 32.5%
And to clarify, the odds of having either Brainstorm or Preordain in your opening hand, assuming you have both in your deck:
- On the play (7 cards seen): ~29.6% (0.2962)
- On the draw (8 cards seen): ~32.8% (0.3282)
Note that it doesn’t make sense to talk about having both in your opening hand as you can only cast one or the other prior to your second turn where you would need your two available mana to cast the Legionnaire. We are only looking for one success.
In summary:
- The odds of naturally having Legionnaire on turn 2 are poor.
- The increased odds of having Legionnaire on turn 2 after playing either of the best hand-sculpting spells on turn 1 are still poor.
- The odds of having either of the best hand-sculpting spells in hand for turn 1 are poor as well.
Conclusion: Porcelain Legionnaire will regularly be cast as a two-drop, as that is a choice made when playing it, but most often not actually on the second turn. But when you do have it… damn.
Whether you call it a two-drop or three-drop, it’s still good either way.
Trinket Mage
While I usually have some snarky or trying-to-hard-to-be-clever leadoff for these card reviews, I will instead concede to my own inadequacies and leverage dialogue between two genuine, bona-fide master wordsmiths:
Yep, that’s Zac Hill (of StarCityGames, Huffington Post, Pro Tour, and Wizards of the Coast R&D fame, to name a few names) citing what may be the most obvious, but easily understated, fact of Magic effects. Tutors are the backbone of Eternal formats, like Legacy and Commander, and when they get the chance to rear their heads in Standard the power is only magnified by the intentional (And generally well-sculpted!) balance found there.
During the first trip to Mirrodin, Fifth Dawn brought us this card as a common:
Of course, that was also the time of Skullclamp and the Affinity archetype breaking the game. The version of Trinket Mage above is from Scars of Mirrodin when it returned as an uncommon, one of the few cards to move up from the lowest rarity in modern Magic.
One of the themes in Fifth Dawn, the originating set for Trinket Mage, was “cogs”: one- or zero-mana artifacts that provide some modest utility or natural synergy with something else, particularly those that are sacrificed to do so (citing Aaron Forsythe citing Mark Rosewaker in the aforementioned Fifth Dawn themes article). While Fifth Dawn itself featured only a small handful of artifacts that cost one mana, the whole of the Mirrodin Block and Magic itself was littered with such cards.
And it’s only grown since.
But What Does it Do?
Trinket Mage is one of a handful of tutor effects at common, after excluding all cards that seek out basic lands. At a glance it seems superficially similar to Totem-Guide Hartebeest, only with a converted mana cost rider. I decided to add the “murder-beest” to the cube after significant positive feedback from other cubes. So why haven’t I tried out Mage here yet?
Let’s talk numbers.
According to the Gatherer, there are currently 79 total artifacts that have been printed at common (or published as common through a Master’s Edition release in Magic Online) and have a converted mana cost less than or equal to one (which includes the one in the upcoming set, New Phyrexia). While I could go through in detail, describing each one in relation to pauper cubes, I’ll instead leave that review exercise up to you. Take a look at the breakdown and compare it to the few that net out into my cube.
Which is why we’re looking at Trinket Mage and the idea of including it in the cube, rather than cogs we’d need with it.
There are currently eight targets for Trinket Mage in the cube. The question I wrestled with was how to understand what critical mass of cogs is required to make Trinket Mage really appealing. My first thought was to compare it directly to the Hartebeest. There are 18 aura targets, and I’ve generally found I always have at least one great target to fetch if I’ve picked up the Antelope. Is this the critical mass?
No. The comparison is flawed.
There’s a fundamental, contextual difference in what Trinket Mage and Totem-Guide Hartebeest can tutor up. The latter grabs one of 11 different removal spells, or 9 different, assorted spells. The former can grab one of six pieces of equipment (including the ‘creature’ Flayer Husk), a colorless Rampant Growth, or a removal spell.
Hartebeest tutors for removal at least half time, with almost twice to total number of available removal spells than equipment for Trinket Mage. And if you’re in Hartebeest’s color (white) you’re almost certainly prioriting grabbing many of those aura removal spells anyway. (To wit, that’s where the lion’s share exists.)
Trinket Mage doesn’t have this type of underlying redundancy in it’s tutor targets. Equipment are colorless artifacts and are often snapped up earlier, even as first picks, because they are safe (and powerful) utility spells. You’ll almost always run any reasonable piece of equipment given the choice, and the pauper cube has nothing but excellent equipment that cost one mana. Pyrite Spellbomb, the removal spell, is slightly inefficient but provides a cycling-like flexibility.
And that’s the ultimate conundrum of dealing with Trinket Mage: if we see it early in a draft it’s a potentially rewarding pick we can reasonably supply picks for, but if we see it late it may be a relatively dead pick thanks to the natural distribution of cheap equipment among all drafters that aren’t you.
This leads me back to the earlier question regarding the threshold of cogs needed to make Trinket Mage work consistently. Does Trinket Mage even need to work consistently?
Mostly yes.
Totem-Guide Hartebeest has so many more targets to grab, with a more powerful selection of targets that aren’t drafted universally, that it fits just right. Trinket Mage would be a Gray Ogre far too often to feel good of including.
Bonus: Real Maths
Let’s look at this another way: assume we want Trinket Mage is in my cube (Reminder: it isn’t), and we want it more than any other potential first pick in a draft. What are the odds we will be able to pick it as the first pick from one of our packs?
First, see this outline for translating my notation below, and an online calcuator for these problems is found here. Together, you should be able to easily replicate solutions and adapt these questions to your cube. I’m glossing over setting and making the calculations manually (it’s not useful or illustrative here).
Now, using my cube, let’s see the odds of Trinket Mage being part of an eight player draft:
- Total Population = 368 = N (The population here is the total number of cards in the cube)
- Population Successes = 1 = k (There is one Trinket Mage in the cube population)
- Sample from Population = 360 = n (8 sets of 3 sets of 15 random sample cards; the 360 total cards to be drafted by eight players)
- Sample Successes = 1 = x (Exactly one Trinket Mage is in one of our packs; exactly one success in the draft of our sample of 360)
The result of h(x; N,n,k) is approximately 98% (0.9783). This means that we can count on Trinket Mage being present in all but 2% of drafts. Pretty good, and finally quantities the odds that any specific card isn’t in a draft.
While we can’t model how people draft (or, rather, I don’t have the necessary knowledge bases to appropriately model an eight player draft of 360 unique cards) we can look at some simple odds on seeing Trinket Mage in our opening packs:
- N = 360 (The population here is the total number of cards in draft)
- k = 1 (There is one Trinket Mage in the draft population)
- n = 45 (3 sets of 15 random sample cards; the 45 cards we see as potential first picks)
- x = 1 (Exactly one Trinket Mage is in one of our packs; exactly one success in seeing a target in our sample of 45)
The result of h(x; N,n,k) is 12.5% exactly. That’s pretty bad, but at least the numbers work out reasonably thanks to divisibility.
Similarly, what are the odds that a tutor target for Trinket Mage is in our opening packs, assuming all eight targets are present in the draft packs?
- N = 360 (The population here is the total number of cards in draft)
- k = 8 (There are eight Trinket Mage targets in the draft population)
- n = 45 (3 sets of 15 random sample cards; the 45 cards we see as potential first picks)
- x > 0 (There is at at least one Trinket Mage target in one of our packs; more than zero successes in seeing a target in our sample of 45)
Here we calculate the odds that we see something other than zero targets via the result of h(x>0; N,n,k), which is approximately 66% (0.6602). This isn’t bad, but you’re still out of being able to grab a tutor target as your first pick in any of your packs about a third of the time.
To be fair, the odds of having all eight targets in your opening 45 is a solid 0.000003% compared to the almost 40% (0.3971) of seeing exactly one of the eight (and since we’re picking without replacement, we can add the odds for seeing exactly two, three, and so on up to reach eight). Basically, you should see something worthwhile for Trinket Mage but potentially not actually see the Mage himself.
Our initial justification to dumping the Mage in was that it’s powerful to draft around but without an eligible pick becomes worth much less, and your odds to being able to first pick something eligible isn’t great either.
Bonus Bonus: Antelope of Doom
So how about Totem-Guide Hartebeest? Well, the odds of being in the draft and available as your first pick are the same as Trinket Mage would be. But recall that Hartebeest has 18 tutor targets, most of which is removal (which you’d be picking anyway).
- N = 360 (The population here is the total number of cards in draft)
- k = 18 (There are 18 Hartebeest targets in the draft population)
- n = 45 (3 sets of 15 random sample cards; the 45 cards we see as potential first picks)
- x >0 (There is at at least one Hartebeest target in one of our packs; more than zero successes in seeing a target in our sample of 45)
The result of h(x>0; N,n,k) is approximately 91% (0.9151). This the final evidence that should solidify why I decided to put the Hartebeest in: your odds are extremely good to see a tutor target (which dips to a still-better-than-for-Trinket Mage 77% (0.7749) if you consider just removal spells) as a first pick.
All this mathematical arm-waving said, there is a slight issue of context (the colors of the removal spells seen, though the majority are indeed white) as well as other unique cards seen through pick 2 through pick 8 (Note: Your 9th pick is where you start wheeling packs you’ve already seen and, therefore, the cards are no longer unique). Solving for the average cases would require defining what the average case is, and that challenge isn’t something I can tackle quickly. The pure numbers shared today help illustrate the differences experienced.
Bonus Bonus Bonus: Subtypes
Manually scouring my cube data to find all of the Aura spells was error laden and time consuming. I’ll be adding a ‘Subtype’ field to the cube spreadsheet to compensate for this frustrating oversight. My bad.
Carnivorous Death-Parrot
I know what you’re probably thinking: “Not another one of Adam’s soft sells for Un-Magic. He’s going to point out a card that effectively exists in normal Magic but comes with a little wacky flavor of the Un side.”
Not today. Shocking, I know.
Lies, Damn Lies, Stybs-isms
First, what kooky card are we looking at exactly?
Carnivorous Death-Parrot is a clever twist on a steep drawback for an efficient blue creature. The “steep drawback” here is having to say the flavor text, cleverly written to trigger several powerful gotcha cards, like Deal Damage and Creature Guy. This means in Unhinged Limited, this guy is both efficient and very risky.
Obviously, the circumstances change dramatically outside of that environment. There are no gotcha cards in my pauper cube, and the relevant ones are uncommons anyway. That said, does removing the risk associated with “paying the upkeep trigger” warrant removing the trigger altogether? I don’t believe so as this guy would then be better than something like Leonin Skyhunter.
I believe that in bringing this guy into “normal” Magic, we can reach a clean decision on how to deal with the upkeep trigger in one of two ways:
- Ignore it (the option that doesn’t make sense)
- Adopt some sort of “Pay 0 or this is sacrificed.” errata.
As I’d already ruled out the first option, I settled on this errata:
At the beginning of your upkeep, you may pay 0. If you don’t, sacrifice Carnivorous Death Parrot.
I will always personally say the flavor text, and most other players who run into it will as well. However, the upkeep trigger stated here is the effective equivalent: if you don’t pay an optional cost of nothing you lose the creature.
“I thought you weren’t trying to sell us on adapting Un cards!” I’m really not. If you’ve played a more traditional cube you may have run into something like this:
You play it then have to pay an upkeep trigger. Recalling a singular upkeep trigger is a less mentally taxing than a continuous one (although the Pact cycle comes with a much steeper clause in the event that you can’t pay it).
Our Bird isn’t so generous, and playing it requires the mental effort to always pay for the trigger. It’s certainly more demoralizing to straight up lose the game for being a little forgetful, but the oddity of having an upkeep cost of 0 is enough to make our bloody parrot the more difficult one to remember.
That said, this guy is a solid value in blue at that expense of significant mental complexity. Both the Pacts and Death-Parrot come with upkeep triggers, but one also comes with a level of complexity uncharacteristic of commons. The net value added may be less than the complexity incremented for your cube.
Caveat emptor.
Cube Comparison (A Guest Post)
[Editor's Note: This is a guest submission sent to me by Alex Ullman, fellow pauper cube builder and general lover of all things pauper. He shares a story about his pauper cube's development culminating in a head-to-head against my own. I hope you enjoy the food for thought as much as I enjoyed seeing Alex's very different pauper cube in person!]
This story begins a lot longer ago than I would like to admit.
First, here’s a brief history of me. My name is Alex (also known as @nerdtothecore on Twitter and SpikeBoyM on Magic Online) [Editor's Note: as well as "Happy Birthday Alex Ullman"], and I play pauper. I got started during my Junior year of college, back when pauper was just a player run format, and have been slinging commons online ever since. Pauper is my competitive outlet that does not break my bank account.
Now, fast forward a few years. I started reading about cubes and roundabout ways to cube draft online (Create a list with every card assigned a random number and then draft in text via PMs …kludge-tastic), until PDCMagic created Draftling. That was awesome. The cube was loosely based on tribal synergy and multicolor. It was not great, but we had fun. About a year after this, I found a local game store. The problem was that no one was good at drafting. I decided to make a pauper cube to help teach the basics of drafting. The cube was loose; over 400 cards and mostly filled with my favorites, and not necessarily the best ones available. But we didn’t care as we were having fun.
Then, enter Seth Burn.
Seth is, and I mean this as affectionately as possible, a dinosaur (It’s okay; I’m one too). He’s been playing Magic for a long time, and had a pretty successful pro career. Have you heard of the Stupid Green Deck? If so, thank Seth. If not, know your history kids.
Seth and I met at a Worldwake Prerelease and started drafting regularly. Eventually we started to run Winston Draft with the cube and I won a lot at first, at least until Seth solved the format: Grixis. Time after time, Seth with go Grixis and I would be destroyed. Control was far too good. The cube was heavy with creatures with enter the battlefield effects that trumped plain old creatures. Most of green’s strength was in multicolored cards, which are hard to support in pauper cubes due to the relatively low quality of mana fixing. Green was great at being a supplement, but stunk as being the main attraction.
We dismantled the cube and it became obvious to Seth that green and white were just underpowered (green more so). He suggested allowing green to run some uncommons, but I was stubborn. Instead, we scaled back the power in other colors and pumped up green, and to a lesser extent white. This meant scaling back on the quality of removal (as there is so much good removal found at common) and weakening the power of blue’s creatures (because blue has been stupid good as a color for way too long).
After doing this, Seth took a scalpel to the multicolored section and trimmed a good amount of the fat. The reasoning behind this was that most of the cards we had were just bad, and our Cube just did not have space for bad cards.
Currently, I feel our cube is pretty darn balanced. Green is far better than it once was and the colors each have their own identity, something the cube I originally built lacked. We cut a significant number of cards and we are a far tighter cube than the old 400+ monstrosity (I think it topped out at 460 at some point).
Around the time that we were working on the cube, I started reading more cube articles. I found Thea Steele‘s, Usman Jamil‘s, and Adam’s writing to be incredibly helpful. I started pumping them for help on Twitter and other sites. This directly affected the steps we took to improve our cube. Perhaps the most interesting thing we found, however, was that Adam’s pauper cube started out with aggro being the dominant force, and he had to work to make control better. This stumped us. When the opportunity came to meet Adam, I had to take it…
But first, here’s a little about our pauper cube.
Size: 393 cards
Color breakdown:
- 58 cards of each color
- 8 of each allied pair (including Borderposts)
- 5 each enemy pair
- 1 for each shard
- 33 Colorless cards (including Zombie Cutthroat and Gathan Raiders)
- Multicolored applies to both hybrid and gold, and looks at the card’s optimal state (Agonizing Demise is a red-black card, for example).
White
White is the combat color. It wants to get into fights because it has creatures that do well in combat. The typical removal spells are present, as well as some ways to fight those spells (such as Cloudchaser Eagle). White has what may be the second best card in our cube in the form of Totem-Guide Hartebeest. When “Murder-Beest” gets going, it’s hard to stop. White also has quite a few tappers and can gum up boards rather quick. When white is the dominant color, it wants to play the aggressive game and is not as good as being the controlling color, but can do alright if pressed into service.
Blue
Blue is the color of doing stupid good things. With access to Mulldrifter and the lion’s share of card-draw, blue is built for the long game. However, most of blue’s creatures are fragile; unless you manage to get all the best options blue is not the best at beating down, but has the tools to help force through the beaters of other colors.
Black
Black has some of the best small creatures, the majority of removal, and a good number of card-advantageous creatures. We cut some of the more back-breaking spells that aided control (Grim Harvest and Death Denied) and replaced them with similar spells and creatures (Morbid Plunder and Pit Keeper, for example). Black also has the “I hurt my controller” creatures and is also the color that best rewards a commitment, with multiple Shades and Tendrils of Corruption.
Red
Unlike other cubes, we have moved away from cheap red creatures. Instead, red is the color of “giants” (5-drops). While red does have access to a number of good small creatures, it has the class of five drops that actually impact the board. This compliments the removal package, which is great at taking out small creatures, by allowing “the Mountain bunch” the ability the pick off smaller blockers, tromping over with the 4 power brigade. We are not set on keeping this character for red, but for now, we like how it plays.
Green
Green has some of the best creatures and great answers to flying. The majority of ramp and color fixing is in the color, making it a must have for any deck above three colors (obvious, I know). Green’s creatures are also the hardest to deal with and are the most likely to do damage, thanks to trample. Most of the card advantage here is tied up in land fetching and selection, but this leads to incredibly consistent decks, or decks that can pump out multiple threats, which help green fight against the other colors.
Multicolor and Colorless
Not much to say here. We have an emphasis on equipment in colorless, and the two “free” morphs (Zombie Cutthroat and Gathan Raiders) both count as colorless. Multicolor cards try to fit the identity of all colors involved, and some do a better job than others.
Meeting of the Cubes
I work in the Student Affairs field, and one of my major conferences was taking place in Baltimore. I knew from Twitter that Adam lived relatively close by (in the same state that is). We took this as an opportunity to meet up. Let me just say that Adam is awesome, and I am grateful for his hospitality (and also for the opportunity to talk cube face-to-face).
After looking at the cubes side-by-side I can say I began to understand the differences between them.
Adam’s cube is focused on combat. His creatures want to attack and block. Yes, his cube has a large number of card advantage creatures as well, but he has creatures that are really good at attacking and blocking. When rebuilding our cube, Seth tried to weed those creatures out (much like Magic has been doing over the past few years). Our creatures have to do something special to “just attack” and that usually means evasion (again, one of the reasons that the Green anti-flying measures are so good).
Whereas Adam’s cube is designed for blitzing speed (from my glances at his list and at the actual cards), our cube was built to create interesting game states. We have purposely selected slower creatures and an increased number of morphs to make combat exciting. Additionally, we have left out a large number of “protection” creatures to help foster interaction. I know Adam is a fan of such creatures, including Guardian of the Guildpact. And to think, we did it all with just commons.
Our cube has come a long way, but there is still work to be done. The best part is, that no matter what we do, our cube will always be pauper, but that does not mean it has to be any one way, as the comparison of our cube to Adam’s shows.
Thanks to Adam for letting me write this piece.
– Alex Ullman
Bonus Editor’s Section: Alex’s Cube
Alex also happened to attach the latest version of his pauper cube when he submitted this guest post. You can download it here, and be sure to reach out to him on Twitter if you have questions or would like a more recently updated cube spreadsheet from him!
